Ethereum weakens as ETF outflows cloud June outlook

Ethereum is heading into June 2026 under pressure after ETH fell 12.6% in May, ending its two-year run of positive May performances.

The decline came as US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $401.62 million in net outflows during the month, weighing on investor sentiment.

May had previously been a strong month for Ethereum, with ETH gaining 24.7% in 2024 and 41.1% in 2025.

The latest monthly loss marks a sharp change in momentum for ETH, especially as ETF flows have closely matched price action throughout 2026.

Ethereum saw near-neutral ETF outflows of $46.01 million in March, while the price still closed the month up 7.07%.

April then brought $355.98 million in net ETF inflows, helping ETH gain another 7.38% for the month.

That pattern shifted in May as heavy ETF redemptions coincided with a steep price drop.

Historical data also adds pressure, as June has often been a weak month for Ethereum since 2016.

ETH has posted an average June return of minus 6.74%, while its median June return stands at minus 5.65%.

Only three June periods have closed in positive territory over the past decade, leaving traders cautious about the coming month.

Still, on-chain data suggests large holders have not abandoned Ethereum during the recent decline.

Santiment data shows whale wallets outside exchanges increased their holdings from 124.15 million ETH on 1 May to 125.17 million ETH recently.

That increase represents more than $2 billion in added ETH exposure, even as the market moved lower.

Some whales appear to have taken profits during the month, but their overall position still increased.

Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change also points to continued accumulation from mid-to-long-term holders.

The metric has remained positive since 24 February and has strengthened since mid-May.

This differs from February 2026, when weaker holder conviction matched a 19.6% monthly drop in ETH.

The current setup suggests long-term holders may see the pullback as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit.

Ethereum’s chart, however, still shows a bearish structure after forming what analysts describe as an inverted cup pattern on the two-day timeframe.

A short rebound from current levels could create the handle of that pattern, but it would not fully cancel the bearish setup.

The Relative Strength Index is showing signs of hidden bullish divergence, which may support a relief bounce in the short term.

Analysts see that signal as more likely to support a temporary recovery than a full trend reversal.

ETH was trading near $1,977 at the time of the analysis.

Glassnode’s cost basis data shows major supply clusters above current prices between $2,059 and $2,075.

Another key resistance area sits near $2,134, where sellers may return if ETH rebounds.

The 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2,055 lines up closely with the first major cost basis zone.

A June bounce could therefore face resistance between $2,055 and $2,134.

The key downside level is $1,964, which ETH needs to hold to keep the rebound scenario alive.

A two-day close below $1,964 could confirm a bearish breakdown and open the door to a move towards $1,545.

The $1,798 Fibonacci level may act as the next support area if selling pressure builds.

Ethereum’s June outlook now depends on whether ETF outflows continue or whale accumulation helps absorb the weakness.

At the time of reporting, Ethereum price was $1,990.96.