Why does Bernstein think the FIFA World Cup is a major opportunity for prediction markets?

Bernstein estimates the 2026 FIFA World Cup could generate between $5 billion and $10 billion in additional prediction market volume. The tournament's expanded format, featuring 104 matches and a global audience of around 6 billion viewers, creates a large opportunity for event-based trading.

How could Coinbase benefit from the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Bernstein believes Coinbase is well positioned to capture new users and trading activity through its prediction markets offering. The exchange has already surpassed $100 million in annualised prediction market revenue after launching the product earlier this year.

What are prediction markets and how do they work?

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcome of real-world events such as sports matches, elections or economic developments. Traders buy and sell positions depending on what they believe is most likely to happen.

How large could the World Cup prediction market opportunity become?

Bernstein estimates the tournament could generate more than $3 billion in additional sports betting handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in prediction market trading volume. That would make the World Cup one of the largest catalysts the sector has seen.

What role does Kalshi play in Coinbase's prediction market strategy?

Coinbase partnered with Kalshi to offer prediction market contracts across all 50 US states. The partnership allows users to trade on sports, politics, culture and other real-world events directly through Coinbase's platform.

Why is Robinhood also expected to benefit from prediction markets?

Bernstein expects prediction markets to become Robinhood's largest source of incremental revenue growth. The brokerage is launching Rothera, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed exchange and clearinghouse focused on prediction markets.

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Coinbase eyes World Cup prediction market boom

Written by Heidi Cuthbert Published Jun 12, 2026, 12:25 AM

The 2026 FIFA World Cup could become a major catalyst for prediction markets, with Coinbase and Robinhood positioned to benefit from billions of dollars in new trading activity, according to Bernstein.

Analysts estimate the expanded tournament will generate more than $3 billion in additional sports betting handle and between $5 billion and $10 billion in new prediction market volume as 104 matches attract global attention.

“We expect prediction markets to be the biggest driver of incremental revenue for Robinhood,”

Bernstein analysts wrote, forecasting approximately $586 million in prediction market revenue for the brokerage in 2026.

Bernstein said Coinbase has emerged as a leading player in the sector, surpassing $100 million in annualised prediction market revenue in March, only months after launching the product.

The exchange expanded prediction market access across all 50 US states through a partnership with Kalshi, enabling users to trade contracts linked to sports, politics, culture and other real-world events.

Robinhood is also using the World Cup as a launch platform for Rothera, its Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse.

A recent report by Bitget Wallet and Polymarket found monthly prediction market trading volume reached nearly $26 billion, with retail traders accounting for more than 80% of users.

The report showed sports betting represented more than 39% of prediction market activity in March, while recent draft guidance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission suggested sports event contracts are generally not considered contrary to the public interest.