Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has returned to the spotlight after Citigroup released a wide-ranging price outlook that outlines bullish, base-case, and bearish scenarios for the cryptocurrency over the next 12 months.
Analysts at Citi set a base-case target of $143,000 for Bitcoin, citing expectations of stronger exchange-traded fund participation and greater regulatory clarity across key markets.
The bank’s outlook also includes a bullish scenario that sees Bitcoin climbing as high as $189,000 if institutional demand accelerates and market conditions remain supportive.
On the downside, Citi warned that Bitcoin could fall to $78,500 within the same period if ETF inflows weaken and broader risk sentiment deteriorates.
Citi’s analysts said the growing role of regulated investment products is reshaping Bitcoin’s market structure and lowering entry barriers for large institutional investors.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs were highlighted as a key driver, as they allow exposure to the asset without the operational and custody risks associated with holding Bitcoin directly.
Under the base-case scenario, Citi expects consistent ETF inflows and clearer policy frameworks to support steady upward price momentum.
The bullish projection to $189,000 is contingent on a strong recovery in ETF flows and sustained confidence from long-term investors.
Citi noted that Bitcoin is currently trading near the $90,000 level, making its projections highly sensitive to near-term market volatility.
Despite the optimistic tone, Citi stressed that downside risks remain significant amid shifting macroeconomic conditions and tightening financial markets.
A separate internal outlook from Fundstrat Global Advisors contrasts sharply with Citi’s projections and points to a more cautious trajectory for digital assets.
According to an internal client note, Fundstrat warned of a potential Bitcoin correction into the $60,000 to $65,000 range during the first half of 2026.
A further correction may unfold as macroeconomic pressures and tighter financial conditions weigh on risk assets.
Sean Farrell said.
Fundstrat’s internal projections suggest such a move would represent a decline of roughly 30% from current price levels.
The same internal analysis also forecast Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) falling to between $1,800 and $2,000 if broader crypto markets weaken.
Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) was projected to retreat into a $50 to $75 range under Fundstrat’s downside scenario.
The contrasting outlooks from Citi and Fundstrat highlight growing uncertainty over Bitcoin’s near-term direction despite strong long-term interest.
Market participants are now closely watching ETF flows, regulatory signals, and macroeconomic data for clues on which scenario is more likely to unfold.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $87,952.95.