Chinese miner sees Bitcoin bottom near $42K

• Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could bottom between US$42,000 and US$44,000 in late 2026, according to miner and analyst Jiang.
• The forecast is based on Strategy's declining market net asset value ratio and comparisons with the previous market cycle.
• Jiang said the model's timing has historically been more reliable than its price projections.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could reach a bear-market low between US$42,000 and US$44,000 between October and December 2026, according to a forecast from Chinese Bitcoin miner and market analyst Jiang.

The prediction is based on Strategy's market net asset value ratio, or mNAV, which Jiang said had fallen to 0.72, close to the 0.7 level recorded during the previous cryptocurrency market downturn in May 2022.

“The model points to Oct. 31, 2026, for a possible bear-market low near US$44,016,” said Jiang in a post on X.

Jiang said the previous cycle showed Strategy's mNAV reaching a low several months before Bitcoin established its final bear-market bottom, with mNAV bottoming in May 2022 while Bitcoin later declined from about US$31,017 to approximately US$15,476 in November 2022.

The forecast remains a market model rather than a confirmed outcome, and Bitcoin was recently trading below US$60,000 after renewed market weakness triggered more than US$850 million in cryptocurrency liquidations.

Jiang said he recently reduced spot Bitcoin exposure and opened short positions for shorter-term trading, adding that he would consider accumulating Bitcoin again closer to his projected price range.

The forecast comes as investors monitor whether Strategy's valuation metrics continue to lead Bitcoin price movements, while broader market conditions, exchange-traded fund flows, interest rates and macroeconomic developments remain key factors influencing cryptocurrency prices.