ARK Invest said Bitcoin has not yet reached its cyclical bottom despite heavy accumulation by long-term holders during the first quarter’s market downturn.
The firm reported that conviction buyers increased their holdings by 69% to 3.60 million BTC, absorbing roughly 1.47 million coins during a 22% price drawdown.
This surge in accumulation marks the fastest pace since the 2020 cycle and highlights a divergence between bearish price action and strong buying from high-conviction investors.
“Such stability suggests that institutional conviction remains strong, even amid significant downside volatility,”
ARK said in its quarterly report.
Despite this accumulation, Bitcoin broke below major support levels including the 200-day moving average and key cost-basis metrics, with ARK identifying a potential bottom range between $50,000 and $54,000, and following the report Bitcoin was trading near $68,200.
Other analysts remain divided, with Benjamin Cowen suggesting a possible cycle low around October 2026, while Grayscale argues the bottom may already be in.
The report underscores a familiar cycle dynamic where long-term holders accumulate during declines, even as broader market signals indicate further downside risk may still lie ahead.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $77,607.66.