1. Why does Samson Mow say Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold?

Jan3 CEO Samson Mow argues that Bitcoin is trading 24%–66% below its long-term trend relative to gold’s market cap and the global money supply. He says gold has become “overextended” after climbing above $5,247 per ounce. His view suggests Bitcoin may be due for a relative catch-up move.

2. What is the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and why does it matter?

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio compares BTC’s value to gold’s market value. Mow uses this ratio to assess whether Bitcoin is cheap or expensive relative to traditional hard assets. When the ratio’s Z-score drops deeply negative, it has historically preceded strong Bitcoin rallies.

3. What is the Z-score Mow is referring to?

The Z-score measures how far Bitcoin’s price (or ratio) deviates from its historical average. A score below zero means BTC is below its average level, while below -2 has historically signalled major rallies. The current BTC-to-gold Z-score is around -1.24, not yet at extreme levels.

4. Has this indicator worked in the past?

In November 2022, the Z-score dropped below -3 during the FTX collapse, and Bitcoin rallied more than 150% over the following 12 months. A similar pattern occurred in March 2020, when the metric fell below -2 and BTC later surged over 300% in the next year. These are historical examples, not guarantees.

5. What is Bitcoin’s current price compared to recent lows?

Bitcoin recently fell more than 50% from its peak to around $60,000 before recovering to near $66,000. This volatility reflects broader geopolitical tensions and investor uncertainty. Current price action remains sensitive to macro and risk sentiment.

6. Why do some analysts expect Bitcoin to fall to $50,000?

Some crypto analysts argue that Bitcoin’s price structure resembles the 2022 bear market pattern. They believe continued geopolitical instability and risk-off sentiment could push BTC toward $50,000. This is a bearish scenario, not a confirmed trajectory.

7. Is this a bullish or bearish signal overall?

Mow’s thesis is bullish in the medium term, based on relative valuation versus gold. However, short-term price risk remains elevated due to macro uncertainty. Investors should recognise that valuation signals can take time to play out.

8. How does gold’s surge affect Bitcoin’s narrative?

Gold has climbed sharply, with futures closing above $5,247 and tokenised gold trading above $5,400. If gold is perceived as overextended, capital rotation into Bitcoin could occur. However, in risk-off environments, gold often benefits first before crypto.

Cryptocurrency

Image for illustrative purposes only. Not a real photo.

Bitcoin undervalued versus gold signals rally

Written by Isaac FrancisPublished Mar 2, 2026, 12:00 AM

Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to gold and global money supply trends, potentially signalling a reversal higher, according to Jan3 chief executive Samson Mow.

Mow said Bitcoin is between 24% and 66% below its long-term trend relative to gold’s market capitalisation and global liquidity measures, while gold has become “overextended” after April futures closed at $5,247.90 per ounce.

“Bitcoin is about 24%-66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap or global money supply, while gold is overextended,”

Said Samson Mow.

Mow pointed to the Bitcoin-to-gold Z-score, which measures how far BTC’s price deviates from its historical average relative to gold, noting that readings below -2 have historically preceded major rallies and that the ratio currently stands near -1.24.

Data from TradingView shows the metric fell below -3 in November 2022 during the collapse of FTX, after which Bitcoin surged more than 150% over the following 12 months, while a similar drop below -2 in March 2020 preceded a rally of over 300% into late 2021 highs near $69,000.

The bullish thesis contrasts with more cautious forecasts from other analysts who argue heightened geopolitical tensions and investor uncertainty could drive Bitcoin towards $50,000, echoing price action seen during the 2022 bear market.

Bitcoin recently fell more than 50% from its peak to around $60,000 before recovering towards $66,000, leaving traders divided over whether historical ratio signals or macro headwinds will dictate the next major move.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $65,972.13.