Bitcoin has climbed above $79,000, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and improving market sentiment.
The move has weakened bearish expectations, with traders now seeing a low probability of a drop toward $60,000 in the near term.
Prediction market data from Polymarket shows only a 3.1% chance of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30, though odds rise to 10.5% by September.
The gap between these timelines suggests traders expect a potential catalyst later in the year rather than immediate upside.
Market liquidity remains relatively thin, with modest trading volumes and shallow order books allowing large trades to shift probabilities significantly.
The recent rally is partly attributed to reduced geopolitical risk, which historically supports risk assets like Bitcoin.
Investors are now watching institutional activity, including moves by BlackRock, and policy signals from the Federal Reserve for further direction.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $78,752.74.