What did the Mercado Bitcoin study find about Bitcoin performance?

The study found that Bitcoin tends to outperform gold and the S&P 500 in the 60 days following major global shocks. This includes events like the COVID-19 crash and US tariff escalations. Bitcoin consistently delivered stronger returns than traditional assets in each case.

Why does Bitcoin outperform after global crises?

According to the study, Bitcoin initially drops during crises as investors seek liquidity, but then rebounds strongly. This recovery phase often leads to outperformance over traditional assets. The pattern reflects Bitcoin’s high volatility combined with strong upside momentum.

How did Bitcoin perform compared to gold and stocks after US tariffs?

After US tariff announcements last year, Bitcoin rose 24% within 60 days. In comparison, gold gained 8% and the S&P 500 increased by 4%. This highlights Bitcoin’s stronger recovery after macro shocks.

What happened during the COVID-19 market shock?

Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin gained 21% over the next two months. Gold and equities also recovered but at a slower pace. This reinforced the pattern of Bitcoin outperforming after initial panic selling.

How is Bitcoin performing during the current US-Iran tensions?

Bitcoin is currently up around 2.2% since the conflict began, rising from about $65,800 to $67,300. Meanwhile, gold has dropped roughly 11% and equities are down around 4.4%. This suggests the same post-shock pattern may be playing out again.

Does this mean Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset like gold?

Not exactly—Bitcoin behaves differently from traditional safe havens. It often falls during the initial crisis phase but rebounds more strongly afterward. This makes it more of a high-risk, high-recovery asset rather than a classic defensive hedge.

What is the key takeaway for investors from this study?

The key takeaway is that timing matters when evaluating Bitcoin during crises. Early price drops can be misleading, as stronger gains may follow. Investors who focus only on the initial reaction may miss the recovery phase.

Is this pattern guaranteed to repeat in future crises?

No, this is based on historical analysis and not a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions, regulation, and macro factors can change outcomes. This should be viewed as a trend, not a certainty.

Cryptocurrency

Image for illustrative purposes only. Not a real photo.

Bitcoin outperforms gold after global shocks study

Written by Mahathir BayenaPublished Apr 6, 2026, 12:00 AM

Bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and equities in the two months following major global shocks, according to a study by Mercado Bitcoin.

The research analysed 60-day periods after events like the COVID-19 outbreak and US tariff escalations, finding Bitcoin consistently delivered stronger returns than gold and the S&P 500.

“It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,”

Said Mercado Bitcoin research head Rony Szuster, cautioning against judging performance too early.

In April last year, Bitcoin rose 24% within 60 days of new US tariffs, compared with an 8% gain for gold and a 4% increase in the S&P 500.

A similar trend occurred during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, when Bitcoin gained 21% over the following two months while traditional assets lagged.

The pattern appears to be repeating during current geopolitical tensions, with Bitcoin up around 2.2% while gold has dropped roughly 11% and equities have declined.

Despite short-term volatility, the study highlights Bitcoin’s consistent post-crisis rebounds and positions it as the best-performing asset of the past decade.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $68,951.08.