Bitcoin outlook hinges on US Iran conflict paths

Bitcoin hovered above $72,000 on Monday after briefly testing $70,000 support, with its next move increasingly tied to escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

Market analyst Sam Daodu said Bitcoin’s trajectory now depends more on geopolitical developments than internal crypto factors, outlining three distinct scenarios tied to oil prices and investor sentiment.

In the most bullish case, Daodu expects a full peace agreement to push oil back toward $65–$70 per barrel, potentially lifting Bitcoin to $100,000 by year-end, implying a roughly 39% gain.

A more moderate scenario centres on anticipated developments around April 15, where a new agreement could drive oil below $95 and trigger a short squeeze across roughly $6 billion in positions between $72,200 and $73,500.

That dynamic could push Bitcoin into a $75,000 to $80,000 range as improving risk sentiment forces bearish traders to unwind positions.

The bearish outlook assumes the ceasefire collapses or fails to materialise, which could send oil above $110–$120 and drag Bitcoin below $70,000, with potential downside extending toward $55,000 if the crisis persists.

Daodu ultimately views the base case as most realistic, expecting Bitcoin to remain range-bound until clearer outcomes emerge from upcoming geopolitical negotiations.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $74,309.89.