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Bitcoin downside risk rises as four indicators stay bearish

Written by BloombergPublished Jan. 24 2026Last Updated Jan. 24 2026

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Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) markets are showing coordinated downside pressure as multiple on-chain and exchange indicators point to weakening demand and sustained distribution.

Selling pressure has expanded across investor cohorts, undermining short-term price stability despite bitcoin’s longer-term structural support.

A recent analysis published on January 23, 2026, highlights a synchronised deterioration in demand and investor behaviour across key metrics.

The report reviews bitcoin’s move from around $90,000 to near $97,500 before momentum stalled and prices began to retreat.

Analysts interpret this failed advance as a signal that upside liquidity was insufficient to absorb growing sell-side activity.

All four indicators are currently showing a bearish convergence. US institutional demand is weak, overall demand is negative, and both Dolphins and Whales are in a distribution (selling) phase.

CryptoQuant said.

Apparent Demand, measured on a 30-day rolling basis, has shifted decisively from positive territory into a sustained negative phase by January 2026.

This transition suggests long-term holders are releasing supply faster than new buyers are entering the market.

Historically, prolonged negative Apparent Demand has coincided with extended periods of price consolidation or deeper corrective phases.

Data tracking one-year changes in whale holdings show a clear reversal from accumulation to net distribution.

Large holders, defined as addresses holding thousands of bitcoin, accumulated steadily throughout 2024 and early 2025 before reversing course.

The sharp compression and move into negative territory is often associated with late-cycle selling by dominant market participants.

Medium-sized investors, commonly referred to as dolphins, are exhibiting similar behaviour according to monthly growth metrics.

Dolphin holdings recorded aggressive accumulation during the 2025 rally before the 30-day change turned negative.

This shift suggests confidence among mid-sized investors has weakened alongside broader market sentiment.

Exchange-based indicators reinforce the bearish outlook, particularly data linked to US trading activity.

The Coinbase Premium Index has remained firmly negative as bitcoin slipped toward the $89,400 level.

A negative premium typically reflects weaker demand from US-based traders compared with global market participants.

Extended periods of negative premiums have historically aligned with reduced institutional risk appetite in the United States.

Combined, these indicators point to a market absorbing excess supply amid declining marginal demand.

Analysts note that such conditions more often lead to prolonged consolidation rather than immediate sharp declines.

Nevertheless, the current setup leaves bitcoin vulnerable to further downside volatility in the near term.

Over longer horizons, structural factors such as capped supply and broader liquidity access remain supportive.

Previous cycles show renewed accumulation often begins once distribution pressure from large holders subsides.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $89,324.34.