Crypto market sentiment data suggests traders have not yet reached the level of fear typically associated with a confirmed market bottom, raising the possibility of further downside for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC).
According to analysis from Santiment, social media discussions remain overly optimistic despite recent price weakness across the digital asset market.
Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich warned that Bitcoin could still fall towards the $75,000 region before a sustainable recovery takes shape.
It looks very tempting to come even closer to it.
Maksim Balashevich said. referring to the potential downside price target discussed during a recent video appearance.
A decline to $75,000 would represent a drop of roughly 15% from Bitcoin’s current trading range near $88,000, based on market pricing data.
Balashevich said his caution stems from the tone of online commentary, where many traders continue to expect a rapid reversal rather than prolonged weakness.
The crowd isn't scared enough for a bottom.
Santiment said in a report released alongside the commentary.
The analyst explained that historically, durable market bottoms tend to form when pessimism dominates public discussion rather than confidence in quick rebounds.
Balashevich highlighted examples of retail-focused channels where traders were discussing macro events as immediate bullish catalysts.
These kinds of statements are not what I want to see.
Maksim Balashevich said, adding that under different sentiment conditions he would be “very confident” in calling a bottom.
He specifically referenced commentary around recent monetary policy moves in Japan, which some traders viewed as supportive for risk assets.
Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, pushed interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%, a decision previously linked with notable Bitcoin corrections.
Balashevich noted that similar policy shifts in the past have coincided with Bitcoin drawdowns of around 20%.
Despite the cautious outlook, he added that a deeper pullback could ultimately offer a “very good setup” for traders seeking long-term opportunities.
Other market observers remain divided, with some forecasting prolonged consolidation rather than an imminent rebound.
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, recently suggested Bitcoin could “take a year off” in 2026, potentially falling to $65,000.
In contrast, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has described 2026 as likely to be an “up year” for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, sentiment indicators present mixed signals, complicating efforts to pinpoint a definitive market bottom.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in “Extreme Fear” territory since mid-December, posting a low reading of 20 over the weekend.
Additional metrics such as the Altcoin Season Index show a strong preference for Bitcoin over alternative tokens, reflecting broader risk-off positioning among traders.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $88,103.58.