Australian logistics giant Qube Holdings (ASX:QUB) has flagged a potential $20 million dent in its earnings for the 2026 financial year, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East ripples through global supply chains and local agricultural sectors.
The company confirmed that higher fuel prices and disrupted trade routes are expected to impact its underlying earnings before interest, tax, and amortisation by between $10 million and $20 million.
The fallout stems primarily from a "timing lag" in passing surging fuel costs onto customers, alongside a sharp decline in agricultural and forestry export volumes.
Shipping constraints have made it increasingly difficult for Australian produce to reach Middle Eastern markets, while elevated freight costs continue to squeeze margins.
However, management anticipates a reversal of these pressures in FY27, provided fuel prices stabilise and regional tensions ease.
Adding to the volatility, Qube reported a further $3 million to $5 million EBITA loss attributed to a series of adverse weather events during the third quarter.
Severe cyclones disrupted bulk operations across Western Australian ports, while intense storms and flooding significantly hampered forestry activity in New Zealand.
Despite these headwinds, Qube maintains a resilient outlook, still expecting to deliver overall underlying earnings growth for FY26.
The company's ability to hit these targets will depend on the pace of fuel cost recovery and the stability of its key markets.
At the time of reporting, Qube Holdings' share price was $5.02.