Why did the Australian government upgrade its net overseas migration forecast for 2025-26?

The Treasury revised the intake upward by 35,000 people to a total of 295,000 due to fewer temporary migrants leaving the country and a steady influx of New Zealanders entering the local workforce.

How does the current migration data compare to pre-pandemic levels?

Current forecasts show that net overseas migration will remain above the pre-pandemic average of approximately 230,000 for longer than expected.

How is the government changing the permanent skilled migration program?

Labor is maintaining a permanent migration cap of 185,000 but re-orienting the mix so that 71% of visas are allocated to skilled applicants. By shifting the focus toward "onshore" migrants—those already in Australia on temporary visas—the government aims to fill critical skill gaps in the labor market without immediately increasing the total net population or adding instant pressure to the rental market.

What is the "points test" overhaul and why does it matter for productivity?

The government is updating the points test for skilled migrants for the first time since 2012 to favor younger, better-educated, and higher-skilled workers.

Labor boosts migration forecasts while revamping skilled visas

Q: What does the extension of the foreign buyer ban mean for the property market?

The Albanese government has extended the ban on temporary migrants purchasing established residential dwellings until June 2029 to ease pressure on housing stock.

Written by Isaac FrancisPublished May. 12 2026Last Updated May. 12 2026

The Albanese government has upgraded its net overseas migration forecasts, revealing that figures will remain above pre-pandemic levels longer than initially anticipated.

According to the latest federal budget, Treasury has revised the 2025-26 intake upward by 35,000 to a total of 295,000, citing lower departure rates among temporary residents and an influx of New Zealanders capitalising on a robust labour market.

While migration plummeted 44% from its post-pandemic peak of 550,000, the slower-than-expected decline presents a political challenge for Labor amidst a growing community backlash over housing and infrastructure.

To manage the surge, the government will extend the ban on temporary migrants purchasing established residential property until June 2029.

Simultaneously, Labor is overhauling the permanent migration programme to prioritise economic contribution.

While the total cap remains at 185,000, 71% of places are now earmarked for skilled applicants.

A key pillar of this strategy is the first update to the "points test" since 2012, re-engineered to target younger, higher-skilled, and better-educated workers.

Experts, including the Grattan Institute, suggest this reform could boost national productivity more effectively than traditional tax or labour market shifts.

Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor is expected to use his budget reply to advocate for migration caps strictly linked to housing construction.

With internal polling suggesting voter dissatisfaction on the issue, the government’s focus on transitioning onshore temporary migrants to permanent residency aims to fill critical skill gaps without further inflating net population growth.