GrainCorp (ASX:GNC) has issued a tempered earnings guidance for FY26, forecasting a year-on-year decline in profitability as global market pressures mount.
The company expects its underlying EBITDA to land between $200–$240 million, a sharp drop from the $308 million reported in FY25, while underlying NPAT is projected to fall to $20–$50 million.
Managing Director Robert Spurway attributed the tightening margins to a "cyclical oversupply" in global grain markets, which has driven commodity prices down and stifled grower incentives to deliver grain.
Despite a robust East Coast Australian winter crop estimated at 31.2 million tonnes, GrainCorp anticipates lower domestic receival volumes of 11–12mmt and a reduction in exports.
In response to these "multi-year lows" in export margins and policy uncertainty in the US biofuels sector, the company is accelerating cost-management initiatives to maintain its balance sheet strength through the downturn.