Polymarket has introduced new prediction contracts betting on potential future US military or geopolitical actions following heavy trading linked to Venezuela.
Traders are now wagering on scenarios including whether the US could invade Cuba in 2026, which markets currently price at around a 10% probability.
Betting odds on a potential US strike against Colombia stood at roughly 9% by Thursday afternoon.
Several newly created Polymarket accounts reportedly earned more than $620,000 by betting that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power by the end of the month.
A $34,000 wager placed shortly before the US raid on Venezuela intensified speculation about possible insider knowledge.
Polymarket declined to comment publicly on the unusual trading activity.
Users are also betting on global outcomes, including leadership changes in Iran, potential Israeli strikes, and whether the US could acquire part of Greenland.
The platform faced backlash after refusing to settle bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing the military action did not meet its definition of an invasion.
Prediction markets have grown rapidly since accurately forecasting Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory.
Polymarket operates in the US with approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission but remains controversial over contracts linked to conflict and violence.