US legislation aimed at setting clear rules for crypto markets could be delayed until 2027, with implementation potentially pushed to 2029, according to TD Cowen.
The firm said political dynamics in Congress make near-term passage uncertain despite ongoing work on the bill’s technical language.
TD Cowen noted Democrats may have little incentive to move quickly ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Election outcomes are always uncertain, which is why Democrats may cut a deal.
Jaret Seiberg said.
Conflict-of-interest provisions affecting senior officials, including President Donald Trump, are expected to be a major sticking point.
Democrats are likely to seek rules barring top officials and their families from owning or operating crypto businesses.
Seiberg said such provisions would be unacceptable to Trump unless their effective date were delayed several years.
Time favors enactment as the problems disappear if the bill passes in 2027 and takes effect in 2029.
Jaret Seiberg said.
The House passed a version of the crypto market structure bill last year, but progress has slowed in the Senate.
Passing the bill would require at least 60 Senate votes, giving Democrats leverage over the timeline.
TD Cowen said a later enactment could allow future administrations to shape the final regulatory rules.
Policy experts estimate a 50% to 60% chance the legislation becomes law in 2026.