Prediction market traders on Polymarket are assigning just a 21% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before 2027.
Polymarket data shows a 45% probability of Bitcoin hitting $120,000, below its previous all-time high.
The odds drop to 35% for $130,000 and 28% for $140,000, reflecting muted trader confidence.
Traders view $100,000 as the most likely outcome, giving it an 80% probability.
Analysts say caution may be linked to the breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle.
Bitcoin closed 2025 in negative territory, dampening near-term sentiment among market participants.
The end of the four-year cycle is expected to introduce new and less predictable trading patterns.
Despite bearish odds, several analysts continue to forecast a strong rebound in 2026.
Expectations of US interest rate cuts under President Donald Trump are seen as a potential catalyst for crypto markets.
Gold and silver reached new highs in late 2025, while digital assets remained largely flat.
Analysts expect the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act to improve regulatory clarity for crypto in the United States.
Firms including Standard Chartered, Strategy and Bernstein predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026.
Bitcoin could rise to between $200,000 and $250,000.
Tom Lee said.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $88,982.89.