Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market based on long-term technical and onchain indicators, according to CryptoQuant analysis.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said several metrics in his bull score index turned bearish in early November.
The index tracks network activity, investor profitability, demand and market liquidity on a scale from zero to 100.
The last confirmation for me is the price moving below its one-year moving average.
Julio Moreno said.
Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, peaked above $126,000 in October and ended the year lower than it started.
Moreno said this trend contradicts forecasts that positioned 2026 as a strong growth year for Bitcoin.
He expects the next bear market bottom to form between $56,000 and $60,000.
Historically, price tends to fall back toward the realised price during bear markets.
Julio Moreno said.
A decline to that range would represent a drawdown of roughly 55% from the all-time high.
Moreno said this would be milder than previous cycles that saw declines of up to 80%.
He added that the current downturn appears more stable than past bear markets.
We don’t see major collapses like Terra, Celsius or FTX this time.
Julio Moreno said.
Moreno noted that institutional investors and ETFs are providing steadier demand during market weakness.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin price was $88,895.35.