Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has signaled that the next cash rate adjustment is more likely to be a hike rather than a cut, despite recent signs of easing inflation.
Speaking to the ABC on Jan. 8, Hauser reflected on the challenges of the past few years of persistent high inflation. "It's our job to ensure that doesn’t happen again," he said.
His comments came a day after official data showed headline consumer price inflation slowing to 3.4% in the year to November 2025, down from October’s 3.8%, still above the RBA's target range of 2-3%.
Hauser stressed that inflation above 3% remains "too high," making a rate cut unlikely.
Financial markets and economists at some of Australia's major banks are already anticipating at least one rate hike in 2026, which would increase the cash rate from the current 3.6%.
Commonwealth Bank analysts predict a February rise, while National Australia Bank sees potential increases in both February and May, potentially taking the cash rate to 4.1%.
Even a single hike would add roughly $111 to monthly repayments on an average $694,000 mortgage, or $1,332 annually.
Analysts note that underlying inflation, excluding volatile items, remains above target at 3.2%, with both goods and services contributing to ongoing price pressures.
The RBA will assess more comprehensive December inflation data, due Jan. 28, to guide its decisions, with Hauser noting any "spectacularly high or low" readings could influence future policy moves.