Israel indicts pair over Polymarket bets

Israel has indicted two citizens for allegedly using classified military intelligence to place wagers on the prediction platform Polymarket, authorities said on Thursday.

Prosecutors claim the bets were tied to sensitive operational details, including the timing of Israel’s opening strike on Iran during the 12-day conflict in June 2025.

“This was allegedly based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed through their military duties,”

Said the Israeli Defense Ministry, Israel Police and Shin Bet in a joint statement.

The suspects, identified as an army reservist and a civilian, were arrested following an investigation into the suspected misuse of confidential information within the defence establishment.

The case has renewed scrutiny of prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts on real-world outcomes and have grown rapidly in popularity across geopolitics, crypto, politics and sport.

Polymarket and similar platforms enable users to buy and sell outcome-linked shares priced between $0.01 and $1.00, with values reflecting implied probabilities and raising concerns over pseudonymous trading and potential misconduct.

The indictments add to a series of recent controversies in which unusually accurate and highly profitable wagers have intensified debate over whether prediction markets function as efficient information aggregators or vehicles for monetising privileged non-public information.